The Questions and Response Frequencies

Comparative data for certain questions comes from the 1996 New Zealand Election Study. For details see Vowles, J., Aimer, P., Banducci, Susan., and Karp, J., ed., Voters’ Victory? New Zealand’s First Election Under Proportional Representation. Auckland, Auckland University Press, 1998.

The questions below are in the order asked of respondents.

1. On the whole, are you satisfied or not satisfied with the way democracy works in New Zealand? (PROBES FOR EACH RESPONSE EITHER:)Very satisfied or fairly satisfied? Or not at all satisfied or not very satisfied?
 

*The question at the 1996 election was asked without a ‘don’t know’ option. The figures in brackets exclude the July 1998 ‘don’t know’s.

Since 1996, satisfaction with the way democracy works in New Zealand among a majority (73 percent) has been reduced to a minority in 1998 (45 percent).

2. By the way, do you happen to recall which parties are currently part of the government?
 

Only three out of four New Zealanders can correctly name the two parties currently part of the government. Some respondents may have confused ‘part of the government’ as implying representation in Parliament. However, only 1.4 percent named six (the actual number of parties in Parliament) and 3 percent named five (assuming that some could have forgotten the single-member United party represented by Peter Dunne).

3. Some people say that MMP has been a disaster and we should get rid of it as soon as possible. Others say that MMP has been a success and we should keep it. Others say that it is too soon to tell.

Which is closer to your view?
 

If given the option, New Zealanders are apparently willing to allow more time to pass before giving their verdict on MMP. Given this, apparent support for a referendum on MMP in the near future suggested by other polling may express support for referendums in principle rather than an intense concern to have an electoral system referendum soon.

4. We would like to ask you a few questions about first past the post and MMP.

First, please listen to this statement carefully.

a) A party with 15 percent of the votes cast across the whole country will receive about 15 percent of the seats in parliament.

Can you tell me if that is true or false under first past the post?
 

The correct answer to this question is "false". A majority understand that the so-called "mechanical effect" of first past the post electoral systems means that minority parties get little or no parliamentary representation. However, 40 percent appear unaware that first past the post electoral systems provide for little or no representation for minority parties.

b) Is it true or false for the party vote under MMP?
 

The correct answer to this question is "true". Only just under half understand that MMP is an electoral system which facilitates representation of such minority parties consistent with their shares of the votes.

5. Again, please listen carefully to this statement.

A party with the most votes across the whole country will receive the most seats in Parliament.

Under which system, MMP or first past the post, is this more likely?
 

Less than half of New Zealanders understand that MMP is more likely to ensure that the party with the most votes will win the most seats.

Questions 2, 4 and 5 indicate that New Zealanders have quite low levels of political knowledge. In particular, about half do not appear to understand that MMP is a proportional electoral system, and what that means.

While this level of knowledge is somewhat disturbing, it is not entirely unexpected. Research indicates that in all democracies political knowledge is lower than many might hope. There is little or no education about politics in New Zealand schools. Electoral systems are complex institutions, and detailed knowledge about them is confined to a minority of experts. Many people have little interest in politics, and as elections are held only every three years, citizens have little incentive to acquire and retain knowledge about how votes are cast and counted.

Because understanding about electoral systems is relatively low, the next questions are designed to probe into New Zealanders’ expectations about electoral systems, leaving aside the labels MMP and first past the post. The questions are designed to establish whether people agree or disagree with proportional representation when particular practically relevant hypothetical choices about electoral outcomes are put to them.

6. Thinking now more generally about how we elect our Parliament:

Do you think that a party that wins 15 per cent of the votes cast across the whole country should receive about 15 per cent of the seats in Parliament, or less than 15 per cent of the seats?
 
 
 

Most New Zealanders appear to believe that minority parties should receive parliamentary representation consistent with their shares of votes. About a third oppose proportional representation in this situation.

Those who opposed proportional representation were asked: What share of seats do you think a party with 15 per cent of the votes should get then approximately? The following table includes all respondents,including those who chose 15 per cent of seats in the original question.
 

Some of those opposed to proportional representation for minority parties are prepared to concede them a higher share of seats that would be likely under first past the post in New Zealand. This would be facilitated by a supplementary member system.

7. Imagine that a party wins the most votes in an election with, say about 40 per cent of the votes. Do you think that party should get about 40 per cent of the seats, or should it get more than half of the seats so that it can govern on its own?
 

A similar majority of voters believe in the principle of proportional representation when it is applied to major parties. Presented with the possibility of the a "manufactured majority" produced by first past the post, allowing the most popular party to govern alone with only 40% of the votes, most voters still prefer proportionality. Given the importance of the principle, the following question more explicitly forces a choice between proportionality and the single party government more likely to be fostered by first past the post.

8. Which of the following is most important to you?

That one party has more than half the seats in Parliament so that it can govern on its own?

OR

That parties have about the same shares of seats in Parliament as their shares of votes?
 

As we shall see from a later question, New Zealanders’ experience of coalition government has led them to prefer single party government. Bringing this preference to their attention, because of the greater difficulty of achieving single party government under proportional representation, the majority for proportional representation shrinks. Applying standard error criteria (the + or - 4.5%), we cannot definitely say whether a majority favours proportional representation of first past the post, but it is most likely that a small majority still prefer PR.

9. If there was another referendum on the electoral system held today, would you vote to replace MMP or would you vote to replace it with an alternative electoral system?

(IF AN ALTERNATIVE) What type of electoral system would that be?
 

This question is open-ended with respect to alternative options to MMP. It produces a level of voter support for MMP close to that indicated by other surveys, notably those conducted for the National Business Review. However, the absence of a forced choice of an alternative reduces support for first past the post considerably as compared to other surveys. Another 3 per cent support STV, another proportional system, but only 2 per cent support the SM system advocated in the National Business Review.

10. We would like to know what you think about each of these political parties. Please rate each party on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means you strongly dislike that party and 10 means that you strongly like that party.

Data in the table gives the average or mean score for each party among all respondents.
 

11. Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?
 

Choices of preferred Prime Minister are consistent with those expressed in recent polls conducted for the National Business Review and Television New Zealand.

12. a) Now I have a question about the performance of the Prime Minister. How much do you approve or disapprove of the performance of Jenny Shipley? Give me a score of between 0 and 10, 10 if you strongly approve, and 0 if you most strongly disapprove.

b) How about the performance of the Deputy Prime Minister. How much do you approve or disapprove of the performance of Winston Peters? Give me a score of between 0 and 10, 10 if you strongly approve, and 0 if you most strongly disapprove.
 

13. At the next election, what sort of government would you prefer - a government made up of a single party or a coalition government made up of more than one party?
 

As suggested earlier, New Zealanders now dislike coalitions. However, significant minority support remains for coalition government, somewhat surprising given that, as we shall see shortly, the present coalition government is so unpopular.

14. If more than one party is needed to form a government, which of EITHER the National or Labour parties, would you most prefer to be in that coalition government? (IF THE RESPONSE WAS NEITHER OR DON’T KNOW, RESPONDENTS WERE FURTHER PROBED:) Which of the two major parties, National or Labour, would you LEAST prefer to be in that coalition government?

Responses to the probe were recoded to be consistent with the intention of the main question.
 

15. Which other party would you prefer to be in that coalition government? (ONLY ASKED OF THOSE WHO INDICATED LABOUR OR NATIONAL IN QUESTION 14)
 

16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the PRESENT Coalition Government is handling its job? Do you strongly approve or disapprove?
 

Only 15 per cent approve of the way the Coalition government handles its job, consistent with other polling.

17. What do you think of the state of the economy these days in New Zealand? Would you say that good or bad, or bad? Is it very good or very bad?
 

18. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as National, Labour, Alliance, New Zealand First, ACT or some other, or don't you usually think of yourself in that way?
 

19. How strongly (PARTY NAMED IN QUESTION 18), do you feel? Very strongly, fairly strongly or not very strongly? (TO THOSE WHO DON’T THINK IN THIS WAY): Do you generally think of yourself as a little closer to one of the parties than the others?
 

20. Can you give me the names of any MPs from your area? (PROBE:) Any others?

(IF RESPONDENT RECALLS ONLY ONE ASK: ) Is that your electorate MP?

(IF RESPONDENT RECALLS MORE THAN ONE ASK: ) Which one is the MP for your electorate?

Data from these questions has not yet been analysed.
 
 

21. We'd like to know how much you agree or disagree with each statement. After the statement is read, please tell me whether you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with each statement.

a) Most Members of Parliament are out of touch with the rest of the country.