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Pre-Election Results, 1999

Results from October 21 to November 26, 1999 are represented in the figures below. All figures represent a five day moving average with a maximum margin of error of (+/-4.7%) for any five day period based on a minimum sample of 450. The daily data point represents the average of the previous two days and the next two days. For example, October 23 represents the average for October 21-October 25. Consequently the data are shifted backward by two days.

Sample sizes vary due to survey design. Data are weighted by household size and gender and age.

Please note: All data on this page are copyright and cannot be produced in any manner without the permission of the principal researchers.

Our estimates compared to the actual result.
 
Overall Last five days of campaign (Nov 22-26)
nzes actual difference nzes actual difference
Labour 40.5 38.7 1.8 41.7 38.7 3
National 30.7 30.7 0.0 30.3 30.7 -0.4
Alliance 8.2 7.7 0.5 7.7 7.7 0
Act 7.3 7 0.3 6.7 7 -0.3
Green 3.9 5.2 -1.3 5.9 5.2 0.7
NZ First 5.1 4.3 0.8 2.5 4.3 -1.8
Christian Heritage 1.6 2.4 -0.8 2.8 2.4 0.4
United 0.3 0.5 -0.2 0.9 0.5 0.4
Other 2.4 3.5 -1.1 1.5 3.5 -2.5

The Horse Race:

Both figures above and below include those who are probed after initially responding don't know. Probing reduces the proportion of don't knows by a third.
See the questionnaire for details.

Parties that poll consistently below one percent are not depicted on the figure. The maximum sampling error for the threshold parties is +/- 2.8% based on a  minimum sample of 450.

Figure above represents the proportion of undecided voters that remain in the sample after being probed. The undecided voters and those who intend not to vote are not included in the party estimates above.


Issues


 
 
 


 
 





Reactions from leadership debate that aired on TV 1 on Monday, November 1
(questions asked November 2-November 9)

TV1_A Did you see the debate among the party leaders on TV One?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid Yes 268 13.0 40.6 40.6
No 392 19.0 59.4 100.0
Total 660 32.0 100.0
Missing System 1400 68.0
Total 2060 100.0

TV1_B Which leader performed the BEST in that debate
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid Jenny Shipley 55 2.7 20.7 20.7
Winston Peters 20 1.0 7.6 28.2
Jim Anderton 84 4.1 31.3 59.5
Helen Clark 41 2.0 15.2 74.8
Richard Prebble 18 .9 6.8 81.6
Other 4 .2 1.4 83.0
None 19 .9 7.0 90.0
Refusal (no response) 2 .1 .6 90.6
don't know 25 1.2 9.4 100.0
Total 268 13.0 100.0
Missing System 1792 87.0
Total 2060 100.0

TV1_C Which leader performed the WORST?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid Jenny Shipley 31 1.5 11.5 11.5
Winston Peters 57 2.8 21.4 32.8
Jim Anderton 16 .8 6.1 38.9
Helen Clark 21 1.0 8.0 46.9
Richard Prebble 87 4.2 32.6 79.4
Other 5 .3 1.9 81.4
None 10 .5 3.6 85.0
Refusal (no response) 3 .1 1.0 86.0
don't know 38 1.8 14.0 100.0
Total 268 13.0 100.0
Missing System 1792 87.0
Total 2060 100.0

Reactions from leadership debate that aired on TV 3 on October 27
(questions asked October 28-November 1)

Q12:Did you see the debate among the party leaders on TV 3?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid Yes 120 9.0 30.3 30.3
No 276 20.7 69.5 99.9
Refusal (no response) 1 .0 .1 100.0
Total 397 29.8 100.0
Missing System 936 70.2
Total 1333 100.0

Q13a:Which leader performed the BEST in that debate
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid Jenny Shipley 11 .8 9.2 9.2
Winston Peters 11 .8 9.2 18.4
Jim Anderton 37 2.8 30.5 49.0
Helen Clark 26 2.0 21.8 70.7
Richard Prebble 6 .5 5.0 75.7
Other 2 .1 1.3 77.0
None 9 .7 7.5 84.5
don't know 19 1.4 15.5 100.0
Total 120 9.0 100.0
Missing System 1213 91.0
Total 1333 100.0

Q14a:Which leader performed the WORST?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid Jenny Shipley 15 1.1 12.1 12.1
Winston Peters 23 1.7 18.8 31.0
Jim Anderton 7 .5 5.9 36.8
Helen Clark 7 .5 5.9 42.7
Richard Prebble 47 3.5 38.9 81.6
Other 1 .1 .8 82.4
None 4 .3 2.9 85.4
don't know 18 1.3 14.6 100.0
Total 120 9.0 100.0
Missing System 1213 91.0
Total 1333 100.0

V145 Q65: Satisfaction with democracy
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid very satisfied 65 3.2 4.4 4.4
fairly satisfied 718 34.9 48.5 52.9
not very satisfied 440 21.4 29.7 82.6
not at all satisfied 206 10.0 13.9 96.5
refusal (no response) 7 .4 .5 97.0
don't know 45 2.2 3.0 100.0
Total 1482 71.9 100.0
Missing System 578 28.1
Total 2060 100.0

V146 Q66: What do you think of the state of the economy these days
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid very good 27 1.3 1.8 1.8
good 420 20.4 28.3 30.1
bad 410 19.9 27.6 57.8
very bad 180 8.7 12.1 69.9
neither good nor bad 408 19.8 27.5 97.4
refusal 8 .4 .5 97.9
don't know 30 1.5 2.1 100.0
Total 1482 71.9 100.0
Missing System 578 28.1
Total 2060 100.0

V151 Q70: What sort of government would you prefer
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid single party 533 25.9 47.6 47.6
coalition/more than one 524 25.4 46.8 94.4
refusal (no response) 10 .5 .9 95.3
don't know 52 2.5 4.7 100.0
Total 1119 54.3 100.0
Missing System 941 45.7
Total 2060 100.0

V154 Q73: Which is most important: Proportional outcomes or single party gov
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid one party more than half 413 20.0 36.9 36.9
same percentage 579 28.1 51.7 88.6
refusal (no response) 9 .5 .8 89.4
don't know 118 5.7 10.6 100.0
Total 1119 54.3 100.0
Missing System 941 45.7
Total 2060 100.0

V158 Q77: Parties should announce coalition intentions
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid agree 887 43.1 79.3 79.3
disagree 132 6.4 11.8 91.1
neutral/neither agree nor disagree 57 2.8 5.1 96.2
refusal (no response) 10 .5 .9 97.1
don't know 33 1.6 2.9 100.0
Total 1119 54.3 100.0
Missing System 941 45.7
Total 2060 100.0

PARTNER Preferred Coalition Partners (if necessary for majority gov)
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid National/Act 272 13.2 14.7 14.7
National/New Zealand First 89 4.3 4.8 19.5
National/Labour 65 3.2 3.5 23.0
Labour/Alliance 409 19.8 22.1 45.1
Labour/New Zealand First 73 3.5 3.9 49.0
Prefer minority government 400 19.4 21.6 70.6
Other/don't know 545 26.5 29.4 100.0
Total 1853 89.9 100.0
Missing System 208 10.1
Total 2060 100.0


 
 






V140 Q60: MMP disaster or success
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid MMP has been a disaster and we should get rid of it 676 32.8 36.5 36.5
MMP has been a success and we should keep it 200 9.7 10.8 47.3
Too soon to tell 864 41.9 46.6 93.9
Refused (no response) 11 .5 .6 94.5
don't know 101 4.9 5.5 100.0
Total 1853 89.9 100.0
Missing System 208 10.1
Total 2060 100.0

V148 Q68: Would you vote to retain MMP
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid vote to retain MMP 535 25.9 42.1 42.1
vote for an alternative system 614 29.8 48.3 90.4
would not vote 9 .4 .7 91.1
refused (no response) 10 .5 .8 91.8
don't know 104 5.0 8.2 100.0
Total 1270 61.7 100.0
Missing System 790 38.3
Total 2060 100.0

V157 Q76: MMP is much fairer than the old first past the post system
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid agree 456 22.1 40.8 40.8
disagree 372 18.1 33.3 74.0
neutral/neither agree nor disagree 228 11.1 20.3 94.4
refusal (no response) 9 .4 .8 95.2
don't know 54 2.6 4.8 100.0
Total 1119 54.3 100.0
Missing System 941 45.7
Total 2060 100.0

V28 Q18: Which vote is most important
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid Party vote most important 845 41.0 45.6 45.6
Equally important 695 33.7 37.5 83.1
Electorate vote most important 214 10.4 11.5 94.6
Refused (no response) 4 .2 .2 94.9
don't know/don't care 95 4.6 5.1 100.0
Total 1853 89.9 100.0
Missing System 208 10.1
Total 2060 100.0

V44 Q29: Party vote decides number of seats
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid true 1261 61.2 68.1 68.1
false 383 18.6 20.7 88.7
refusal (no response) 6 .3 .3 89.1
don't know 203 9.8 10.9 100.0
Total 1853 89.9 100.0
Missing System 208 10.1
Total 2060 100.0

V155 Q74: Vote counts in elections
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid agree 901 43.7 80.5 80.5
disagree 107 5.2 9.6 90.0
neutral/neither agree nor disagree 99 4.8 8.8 98.9
refusal (no response) 10 .5 .9 99.7
don't know 3 .1 .3 100.0
Total 1119 54.3 100.0
Missing System 941 45.7
Total 2060 100.0

V156 Q75: Most Members of Parliament are out of touch
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid agree 748 36.3 66.8 66.8
disagree 233 11.3 20.8 87.7
neutral/neither agree nor disagree 115 5.6 10.2 97.9
refusal (no response) 13 .7 1.2 99.1
don't know 10 .5 .9 100.0
Total 1119 54.3 100.0
Missing System 941 45.7
Total 2060 100.0

V159 Q78: MMP gives too much power to small parties
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid agree 526 25.5 47.0 47.0
disagree 433 21.0 38.7 85.6
neutral/neither agree nor disagree 113 5.5 10.1 95.7
refusal (no response) 8 .4 .7 96.5
don't know 40 1.9 3.5 100.0
Total 1119 54.3 100.0
Missing System 941 45.7
Total 2060 100.0

.
 
 





V143 Q63: knowledge about MP referendum
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid yes 972 47.2 61.7 61.7
no 594 28.8 37.7 99.4
refused to answer 9 .4 .6 100.0
Total 1575 76.4 100.0
Missing System 485 23.6
Total 2060 100.0

V144 Q64: Intended vote on # of MPs referendum
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid will vote to reduce the number to 99 1298 63.0 70.1 70.1
will vote to retain the current number of 120. 307 14.9 16.6 86.6
will not vote 21 1.0 1.1 87.8
refused (no response) 14 .7 .7 88.5
don't know 213 10.3 11.5 100.0
Total 1853 89.9 100.0
Missing System 208 10.1
Total 2060 100.0

 
 
 


 
 











Of the following, who do you think is most responsible for the performance of the All Blacks in the World Cup?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid John Hart 111 5.4 27.0 27.0
Jenny Shipley 4 .2 .9 27.9
Winton Peters 1 .0 .2 28.1
All-Blacks themselves 210 10.2 50.9 78.9
New Zealanders as a whole 31 1.5 7.4 86.3
Other 27 1.3 6.4 92.8
Don't Care 17 .8 4.2 97.0
Don't Know 13 .6 3.0 100.0
Total 413 20.0 100.0
Missing System 1647 80.0
Total 2060 100.0

 
 


Methodology
Our sampling frame consists of randomly selected residential households throughout New Zealand, based on listed numbers supplied by Telecom. When we reach a household, we randomly select an eligible voter based on who in the household had the most recent birthday. We will also arrange to call back respondents if the person randomly selected in the household is unavailable. Since we are polling daily throughout the campaign we have the advantage of contacting people who are difficult to reach. We leave very few phone numbers without either a response or a refusal, simply calling and recalling until we get a reply. We try to maximize our response rate by offering respondents a chance of winning a $300 gift voucher as an incentive to participate. Our response rate is currently 58 percent. The general rule is that a response rate of about 50% is the norm for telephone interviews. Sometimes, it can be considerably lower.

Aside from having a relatively high response rate, we interview daily until the election. Other organisations typically poll over 'snapshots' of several days only. Ideally we would like to minimise our sampling error by having a large sample each day. One way to compensate for a relatively small number of daily interviews is to construct a 'rolling average' of interviews conducted over five days. For each data point, we take not only that day but the two days before and after, and move on through the campaign, moving from one five day cross-section to the next, dropping the last day from the sample and adding the next. Over a five day period our budget allows us to achieve a minimum sample size of 450 which produces a margin of error of +/- 4.7%. Organisations that can afford to contact more people over a shorter time period have the advantage of minimising their sampling error over that period. However if their response rate is low then the results might be biased toward those who are easy to reach. In the longer run, over the whole campaign our sample size will be between 3,500 to 4,000, which will make it possible, long term, to estimate an average level of campaign support for parties with quite low margins of error.

We weight our data by household size, and across six age and gender groups to make sure each day's data represents the composition of the population 18 years and over. The questionnaire takes about 15 minutes, but we have a shorter version for those people who are unwilling to go through the longer version. This is another reason we have a high response rate for the crucial voting questions.

The tables below make the best comparisons possible between our party vote intention findings and those of other polls. We interview about the same number of people per day, whereas other pollsters may do more of their interviews on some of the days than others. During a campaign, opinions may shift over that period. Like most other polls, we 'probe' those who say 'don't know' by asking them which party they lean most towards, and include those in our party vote intention reports. However, there is little significant difference whether or not we include those respondents or not.

Early in the campaign, our polling tracked closer to the Herald-Digipoll than to TV3-CM Research. Indeed, we were quite close to Digipoll's first poll (see below). We tracked a shift to the centre-left over the period when Digipoll stopped and TV3-CM continued. We continued to track National support at levels similar to Digipoll though not as low as TV3-CM.

Polls are, of course, not predictions of election results. Opinion over campaigns is volatile. Generally, the poll which best 'predicts' the election result is the one taken the closest to election day.
 
 







 
 

New Zealand Herald DigiPoll and NZES
November 11-17

 New Zealand Election Study
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll
Difference
Alliance
8.9
 8.6
 +.3
Labour
41.1
 37.8
 +3.3
National
29.3
 29.1
 +.2
NZ First
5.1
 4.8
 +.3
ACT
8.5
 10
 -1.5
Greens
 4
 5.2
 -1.0
Sample size
 571
 872
 -1.2

TV3 CM Research and NZES
November 11-17

 New Zealand Election Study
TV3
CM Research
Difference
Alliance
8.9
 9
 -.1
Labour
41.1
 37
 +4.1
National
29.3
 30
 -.7
NZ First
5.1
 6
-.9 
ACT
8.5
 9
 -.5
Greens
 4
 2.8
+1.2 
Sample size
 571
 810
 

NBR-Compaq poll (UMR Insight) and NZES
November 11-16

 New Zealand Election Study
NBR-Compaq Poll
Difference
Alliance
9.6
 10.4
 -.8
Labour
41.5
 35.6
 +5.9
National
28.0
 30.0
 -2
NZ First
5.1
 4.6
 .5
ACT
9.5
 8.2
 +1.3
Greens
 3.4
 4.6
 -1.2
Sample size
 496
750 
 

New Zealand Herald DigiPoll and NZES
November 4-10*

 
New Zealand Election Study
 New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll
Difference
Alliance
 9.8 7.8   +2
Labour
 41.7 33.4   +8.3
National
 31.9 31.7   +.2
NZ First
 5.4 6.5   -1.1
ACT
 6.8 10.5   -3.7
Greens
 1.2 4.6   -3.4
Christian Heritage
 1 2.8  -1.8 
Sample size

*Note on the Digipoll polls: The exact dates are uncertain, as Herald indicates the polls taken (1) 'between October 29 and November 4' and (2) 'during the week to November 10'.  November 4 appears to overlap we assume that is in the second, not the first poll, given that the first poll was published on the morning of November 5.
 
 





TV1 Colmar Brunton and NZES
November 8-11

 
New Zealand Election Study
 TV1
Colmar Brunton
Difference
Alliance
9
9
0
Labour
44
34
+10
National
28
33
-5
NZ First
6
6
0
ACT
9
11
-2
Greens
0
2
-2
Sample size
360
1000
 

TV3 CM Research and NZES
November 1-5

 New Zealand Election Study
TV3
CM Research
Difference
Alliance
11
7
+4
Labour
37
41
-4
National
34
28 
+6
NZ First
5
9
 -4
ACT
8
10
-2
Greens
 2
3
 -1
Sample size
 
 
 

New Zealand Herald DigiPoll and NZES
October 29-November 3*

 
New Zealand Election Study
 New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll
Difference
Alliance
9.6
8.7
.9
Labour
36.9
35.2
1.7
National
32.1
33.6
1.5
NZ First
6.7
5.5
1.2
ACT
7.5
9.2
1.7
Greens
2.9
2.9
0
Sample size
560
869
 

 

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