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• Vowles, Jack. 2011. "Why Voters Prefer Coalitions: Rationality or Norms", in Political Science 63, 126-145.
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  This article asks if voters might prefer coalitions or single-party governments for ideological or normative reasons. Of course, they might prefer coalition to single-party governments for many reasons, one set clustering around the rational preferences of partisans largely in terms of expectations of electoral success or failure, and the other around the influence of norms or ideology. In terms of ‘rationality’, small party supporters should want their party to have a role in government. Large party supporters should prefer single-party government, unless their loyalties are weak, or unless they expect the large party they dislike will have the best chance of forming a government, and therefore hope that its power might be diluted by having to form a coalition. Meanwhile less partisan voters might or might not be influenced by norms that favour broadly based, consensual governments that command majority as compared to plurality support, that minimise parliamentary conflict, and that make it possible for successive governments to follow more consistent policies over time. Regardless of partisanship, some people might prefer strong governments, particularly if their disposition is authoritarian. Ideology might have effects independent of partisanship. Norms and preferences for type of government might also interact as part of change in a political culture. Using data from five elections that have generated coalition and/or minority governments in New Zealand, a country previously accustomed to single-party rule, this article tests these hypotheses and explores the implications of the findings.

• Jack Vowles. 2010. "Electoral System Change, Generations, Competitiveness and Turnout in New Zealand, 1963-2005", in British Journal of Political Science., 40, 4, 875-895.
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  In 1996, New Zealand changed its electoral system from single-member plurality (SMP) to a Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system. This article addresses the effects on turnout of electoral system change, generational differences and national and district-level competitiveness. Both theory and cross-sectional empirical evidence indicate that turnout should be higher after the change to MMP. Yet turnout has declined. Most of this turns out to be an effect of lag effects generated by longer-term trends of declining competition, and generational experiences. MMP has shifted the main focus of electoral competition from the district to the national level, with consequent changes in turnout distribution. Electoral boundary changes also have negative effects under MMP, and most MMP elections have taken place after an electoral redistribution.

• Shaun Bowler, Jeffrey A. Karp, and Todd Donovan 2010. "Strategic Coalition Voting: Evidence from New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 29, No. 3. 350-357.
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  Whereas the classic literature on strategic voting has focused on the dilemma faced by voters who prefer a candidate for whom they expect has little chance of winning a seat, we consider the dilemma faced by voters in PR systems who do not expect their preferred party to be in government. We develop hypotheses relating to strategic voting over multi-party governments that we test using the New Zealand Election Study (NZES) campaign study of 2002. We find evidence that expectations play a role in structuring vote choice. While there is clear evidence of wishful thinking there is also evidence that voters respond to expectations about government formation. These expectations may lead voters to defect from their first preference or even decide not to turn out and vote.

• Jeffrey A. Karp. 2009. "Candidate Effects and Spill-Over in Mixed Systems: Evidence From New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 28, No. 1. 41-50.
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  Although mixed member proportional (MMP) systems offer several advantages they also have one potential problem that threatens the legitimacy of electoral outcomes. Some suggest that these systems suffer from a ’contamination effect’ where candidates have the potential to influence the party list vote which ultimately determines the partisan composition of parliament. This paper examines this theory in New Zealand which has conducted four elections under MMP. The analysis is based on district level data merged with individual level data. The findings suggest that although many voters do not have an opinion of candidates, those who do are likely to evaluate incumbents and party leaders more positively. While these factors can also have an influence on the party list vote, the overall effect is quite limited.

• Raymond Miller and Jack Vowles, 2009. "Public Attitudes Toward MMP and Coalition Government", New Zealand Journal of Public and International Law, 7, 1, 93-110.
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  Against the background of continuing discussion about an electoral referendum in 2011, this article assesses whether public support for mixed member proportional (MMP) and coalition government has consolidated or declined. This article draws on New Zealand Election Study data to explore shifts in public opinion since the introduction of MMP in 1996. It considers trends in support across parties and measures opinion across major social variables and, in a second part, analyses public attitudes towards MMP by examining differences between long-term and short-term influences and the distinction between attitudes towards MMP and attitudes towards proportionality.

• Jeffrey A. Karp, Susan A. Banducci and Shaun Bowler. 2008. "Getting Out the Vote: Party Mobilization in a Comparative Perspective" in British Journal of Political Science. Volume 38, No. 1. 91-112.
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  Abstract: A long tradition within political science examines the impact of party canvassing on voter turnout. Very little of this work, however, is comparative in scope. In this paper we compare across seven countries to examine the impact of party canvassing and cross-system differences in which voters are targeted. Parties tend to target the same types of potential voters across electoral systems – those who are likely to participate.However, one major – and surprising – pattern is that overall levels of party contact are both lower and less effective in PR systems. Thus not only does party mobilization have a limited impact on turnout in PR systems it cannot explain the higher rates of turnout observed in PR systems.

• Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Political Knowledge about Electoral Rules: Comparing Mixed Member Proportional Systems in Germany and New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 25, No. 4. 714-730.
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  Mixed electoral systems are considered by some to be "the best of both worlds" because they combine single member district representation with proportional outcomes. Critics, however, maintain that such systems cause voter confusion leading some to cast misinformed votes. Survey data from Germany and New Zealand are used to investigate voter's political knowledge of the electoral system and their voting behavior. The findings suggest that knowledge about the electoral system is similar in New Zealand and in Germany. Although some may very well find the system complex, there is no evidence to suggest that a lack of knowledge about the electoral system influences voting behavior, undermining the claims made by skeptics who fear that misunderstanding threatens the legitimacy of electoral outcomes.

  Acknowledgements: I would like to thank Edmund Lauf who contributed to an earlier paper on which this analysis is partly based. The paper was presented at the 2002 Meeting of the German Studies Association, San Diego, California. October 3-6.

• Jack Vowles, Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Forecasting and Evaluating the Consequences of Electoral Change in New Zealand" in Acta Politica. Volume 41, No. 3. 267-284.
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  Abstract: The debate in New Zealand over whether to adopt a mixed member proportional (MMP) system was based on a number of predictions about the effects of electoral systems. After four elections under MMP we are now in a better position to evaluate the validity of the claims. We find that both proponents and opponents made claims that proved to be true but there were also unforeseen consequences that neither side could have predicted.

• Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Why Politicians Like Electoral Institutions: Self-interest, Values, or Ideology?" in Journal of Politics. Volume 68, No. 2. 434-446.
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  Abstract: We examine whether MPs and candidates for parliament are motivated by electoral self-interest, values, ideology, or all of these when evaluating proposals for changing electoral institutions. Using survey data from four countries (Australia, Germany, the Netherlands and New Zealand), we find that candidates who won election are less supportive of proposals to change institutions, while those who lost elections are more supportive of institutional changes. Winning candidates share preferences for institutions that are independent of whether they are affiliated with a governing or opposition party. This self-interest effect is attenuated by ideology and attitudes about democracy. Pure self-interest, then, is an incomplete explanation for politicians' attitudes towards electoral institutions. We discuss how these findings are related to the static nature of political institutions.

• Jack Vowles and Clive Bean. 2006. "Electoral Politics: Does Globalisation Matter?" in Australian Journal of Political Science. Volume 41, No. 2. 273-288.
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  Abstract: In terms of conventional economic indicators, New Zealand is more globalised than Australia. Two sets of theoretically derived propositions are tested compared to a null hypothesis of no effects: the first, that globalisation will reduce the reality and/or the perceptions of electoral choice, and the second based on the assumption that it may change but not necessarily reduce the effects of those parameters. With data from Australian and New Zealand Election Studies from 1996 onwards, and using multivariate logit models, we test the effects of economic voting, and the ideological salience of Left–Right issues, notably welfare and tax policy, and the extent to which opposition to aspects of globalisation might mobilise support for political parties. We find little support for the argument that New Zealand electoral politics should reflect globalisation influences more strongly than Australian electoral politics. To the extent that the evidence does appear to confirm any aspects of the two propositions, it is commonly the more moderate effects associated with the second proposition that are supported.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and David Brockington. 2005. "Social Desirability and Response Validity: A Comparative Analysis of Over-Reporting Voter Turnout in Five Countries" in Journal of Politics. Volume 67, No. 3. 825-840.
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  Abstract: Theory and evidence suggests that the source of over-reporting of voter turnout in election surveys is largely due to a respondent’s incentive to offer a socially desirable response. We suggest that contextual influences may affect the socially desirable bias, leading to variance in the rate of over-reporting across countries. Specifically, we hypothesize that nonvoters will be more likely to over-report voting in elections that have high turnout. We rely on validated turnout data to measure over-reporting in five countries which vary a great deal in turnout: Britain, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. We find that in national settings with higher levels of participation, the tendency to over-report turnout may be greater than in settings where low participation is the norm.

• Todd Donovan, Shaun Bowler, Robert Hanneman and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2004. "Social Groups, Sport and Political Engagement in New Zealand" in Australian Journal of Political Science. Volume 39, No. 2. 405-419.
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  Abstract: Many prominent social theorists contend that memberships in voluntary associations make major contributions to making citizens more engaged with democracy. Although substantial attention has been directed at the potential role of sports groups, previous studies using survey data have not found membership in sports groups to be associated with political activity. New Zealand presents an important context for testing this theory, given its high levels of public participation in sports groups. We find that membership in sports and other social groups is associated with higher levels of political engagement. We discuss how these findings advance our understanding of the role that specific group memberships may have in democratic societies.

• Susan A. Banducci, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2004. "Minority Representation, Empowerment, and Participation" in Journal of Politics Volume 66, No. 2. 534-556.
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  Abstract: We examine how the context of representation affects citizens’ attitudes about their representatives and government and their likelihood of voting. According to the minority empowerment thesis, minority representation strengthens representational links, fosters more positive attitudes toward government and encourages political participation among minorities. We examine this from a cross-national perspective, making use of rare survey data that sampled minorities in the United States and New Zealand. Both countries incorporate structures into their electoral systems that make it possible for minority groups to elect constituency representatives of their choice. We find that in both countries, descriptive representation matters. In the United States, blacks who have black representatives are more likely to have knowledge about their representative, and are more likely to contact and approve of their representative. Similarly, we find that in New Zealand the ethnicity of the representative makes a difference. Where Maori hold constituency seats, Maori citizens are more likely to see government as responsive and are more likely to vote than Maori outside these constituencies. Our results suggest that rules leading to greater descriptive representation of minorities have effects that transcend standard assessments of a tradeoff between substantive and descriptive representation. These findings have broad implications for debates about methods designed to enhance minority representation.

• Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2003. "How Elections Change the Way Citizens View the Political System: Campaigns, Media Effects, and Electoral Outcomes in Comparative Perspective" in British Journal of Politcal Science. Volume 33, No. 3. 443-467.
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  Abstract: Attitudes toward the political system have often been assumed to be stable attributes that are not easily influenced by short term forces. In this paper we examine the extent to which attention to media coverage, campaign activity, and electoral outcomes can mobilize political support in the context of an election campaign. Using pre and post-election survey panels from the United States, Britain and New Zealand, we find significant changes on most indicators of political support. In particular, election winners, regardless of the political system, are happier than losers. Aside from electoral outcomes, attention to the media, particularly serious news coverage, can enhance attitudes toward the political system. The results have implications for the debate over the meaning of political support.

• Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2002. "When Might Institutions Change? Elite Support for Direct Democracy in Three Nations" in Political Research Quarterly . Volume 55, No 4. 731-754.
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  Abstract: Citizen initiated referenda (CIRs) allow groups and individuals outside a legislature to draft policies that, if approved in a popular vote, may be binding on government. Some observe that such practices are fundamentally inconsistent with representative democracy, with parties as organization, and with responsible government in particular. Given the potentially antagonistic relationship between legislative institutions and CIRs, and the fact that CIRs might alter how legislatures operate, support for CIRs among legislators would appear somewhat paradoxical. Using survey data from three nations we examine the nature of support among legislators and aspiring legislators as a way of testing hypotheses about elite motivations for changing political institutions. Our results suggest that greater resistance to CIRs is found among incumbents generally, the governing party in particular, and among respondents who place themselves at the ends of the ideological spectrum.

• Jack Vowles. 2002. "Offsetting the PR Effect? Party Mobilization and Turnout Decline in New Zealand, 1996-99" in Party Politics Volume 8, 587-605.
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  Abstract: The 1999 election produced probably the lowest voting turnout of any twentieth-century New Zealand election. Yet it was the second election after a change to proportional representation from a first-past-the-post system, which comparative research indicates should have had the effect of turnout increase. This puzzle is examined using pooled validated data from the 1996 and 1999 New Zealand Election Studies, with particular attention to the effects of partisan dealignment, party mobilization and the short-term effects of New Zealand’s first experience of coalition government since the 1930s.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2002. "Issues and Party Competition under Alternative Electoral Systems" in Party Politics. Volume 8, No 1. 123-141.
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  Abstract: Proximity and directional spatial models yield different predictions for mass-elite linkages under alternative electoral rules. Whereas the proximity or Downsian model predicts that parties are likely to adopt positions that are closer to their voters, the alternative directional model predicts parties will adopt more extreme positions in order to generate political support among an electorate that has diffuse policy interests (Rabinowitz and Macdonald 1989; Macdonald, Listhaug and Rabinowitz 1991; Rabinowitz, Macdonald and Listhaug 1991). Theoretical arguments lead us to expect that the directional model is most applicable in plurality systems, while the proximity model is best for describing party and voter behavior in multi-party systems. While others have examined these models from a cross national perspective, we employ an alternative research design using candidate and mass opinion data from New Zealand where voters have experienced a change in the electoral system.

• Jeffrey A. Karp, Jack Vowles, Susan A. Banducci, and Todd Donovan. 2002. "Strategic Voting, Party Activity, and Candidate Effects: Testing Explanations for Split Voting in New Zealand's New Mixed System" in Electoral Studies. Volume 21, No 1. 1-22.
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  Abstract: Recent research on voting in Germany's mixed electoral system suggests that split voting has more to do with voter confusion than sophistication, although this remains a matter of debate. We examine this question in the context of New Zealand's new mixed system, which is modeled after Germany's. We focus on alternative explanations for split voting. One is derived from theories of strategic voting, which hypothesises that voters will split their votes when their preferred party's candidate is not viable in single member district (SMD) contests. We also consider the influence of party attachments and candidate preference. We examine these explanations using both aggregate and individual level data. The assumption that split voting in mixed systems is largely due to confusion is not supported in New Zealand as split voters cast votes in predictable patterns. In particular, we find that strategic defections are more likely to occur when the preferred candidate is not viable. Those with higher levels of political knowledge are more likely to defect from nonviable candidates. Partisan attachments and candidate effects also help to explain split voting.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Shaun Bowler. 2001. "Coalition Politics and Satisfaction with Democracy: Explaining New Zealand's Reaction to Proportional Representation" in European Journal of Political Research. Volume 40, No 1. 57-79.
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  Abstract: Following approval of a referendum in 1993, New Zealand replaced its first-past-the-post electoral system with proportional representation (PR). Although support for PR was initially high, less than a third expressed support for the system a year and a half after holding the first election held under PR. We examine two explanations for this decline. One theory assumes that dissatisfaction with the new system is the result of a growing alienation with politics, exacerbated by an unpopular coalition government that voters neither expected nor desired. Another theory assumes that evaluations of the new system are mediated by a preference for coalition or single party government. Our results indicate that a preference for single party government, guided primarily by partisan self-interest, has the largest impact. Nevertheless, negative evaluations of the performance of the coalition government helped contribute to a loss in support for PR suggesting that government performance can affect citizen's evaluation of political institutions, particularly when systems undergo radical change.

• Susan Banducci, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey Karp. 1999. "Proportional Representation and Attitudes About Politics: Results from New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 18, No 4. 533-555.
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  Abstract: PR systems are often credited with producing more equitable outcomes between political parties and encouraging wider social group representation than majoritarian systems. Theory suggests this should instill greater trust, efficacy, and faith in the political system. We assume that citizens disadvantaged by majoritarian rules (political minorities) would have a relatively greater shift toward positive attitudes about democracy following a transition from a majoritarian system to proportional representation. We employ panel data from the 1993-1996 New Zealand Election Study (NZES) to test hypotheses about the effects of electoral system change on attitudes about governmental responsiveness, trust in government, and political efficacy. We find that there was a general shift in mass opinion toward more positive attitudes on some measures of efficacy and responsiveness. However, although political minorities display a greater shift toward feelings of efficacy than other voters, they did not come to see government as more responsive or more worthy of trust as compared to other voters.

• Jeffrey Karp and Susan Banducci. 1999. "The Impact of Proportional Representation on Turnout: Evidence from New Zealand" in Australian Journal of Political Science. Volume 34, No 3. 363-377.
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  Abstract: Theories of voter turnout assume that institutional arrangements dramatically alter incentives for participation. Countries with proportional representation (PR) are assumed to increase the incentives to participate because they reduce the proportion of votes that are wasted giving voters a stronger incentive to participate and parties a stronger incentive to mobilise voters. This paper departs from previous cross-national studies by employing individual level data during a transition between electoral systems in one country. We use survey data collected before and after electoral reform in New Zealand to examine patterns of participation among political minorities. As a direct test of individual change, the analysis is supplemented with survey data from the last election held under first past the post (FPP) merged with validated participation data from the following election held under PR. We find that the adoption of PR in New Zealand has succeeded initially in fostering more positive attitudes about the efficacy of voting. In New Zealand's first election held under proportional representation, voters who are on the extreme left were significantly more likely to participate than previously leading to an overall increase in turnout.

• New Zealand Election Study. 2000. "Electoral System Opinion and the Evolution of MMP: A Report to the Electoral Commission"
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  Research into electoral systems indicates that extreme claims about the consequences of particular electoral systems are rarely justified, and that incremental changes are better than radical changes. While the change to MMP was a radical one, it was based on sound and compelling argument and research. MMP is not an extreme form of proportional representation (PR) as it has a relatively high threshold for party representation. Our experience of MMP is still relatively brief. Radical changes such as a return to FPP, or otherwise involving a significant reduction in proportionality of the electoral system would therefore be premature. But there is a case for fine-tuning.

• Vowles, Jack, 2012. 'Down, Down, Down: Turnout in New Zealand from 1946 to the 2011 Election', Paper for presentation at the Annual conference of the New Zealand Political Studies Association, Wellington, November 25-27 2012.
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  Electoral turnout in New Zealand exhibits a linear downward trend over the last halfcentury, with only a few exceptional elections as outliers. As turnout habits are "sticky", such a trend will be hard to reverse. This paper first analyses the time series of macro-data from 1946. Building on previous longitudinal analysis of the extant survey data, it also uses data from the 2011 NZES to explore the most recent individual-level patterns.